A survey by Genesis Mining found that most Bitcoin investors don’t expect a price of $50,000 per BTC in 2030, although 3.5% of respondents expect prices above $500,000.
The British Virgin Islands-based institutional mining platform, Genesis Mining, released the findings of a survey of 1,000 current and former Bitcoin investors based in the United States, two-thirds of whom believe that BTC is a better long-term reserve of value than the dollar.
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More than half of the respondents believe that Bitcoin will beat gold, real estate and the stock market in the next 5 to 10 years, and 65% express faith that the value of BTC will continue to appreciate over time.
The Bearish Case
But despite the seemingly favorable sentiment, only 17% of respondents predicted that Bitcoin’s price would exceed $50,000 by 2030. This would only require the price to rise 160% over the next 10 years, while BTC has already gained 166.5% so far this year.
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Another 17% predicted that Bitcoin’s price will actually fall over the next decade, while one-sixth of respondents didn’t feel confident about speculating on BTC’s long-term price performance.
In total, 50.1% of respondents estimated that BTC will be worth USD 20,000 or less in 2030, a third said the price will be USD 10,000 or less, and 11.8% predicted prices below USD 1,001.
Nearly one-third of the participants who predict stagnation or bearish returns over the next 10 years expect Bitcoin to face regulatory hurdles, while one-fifth anticipate that governments will ban cryptomoney altogether.
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About 17% of non-bottom-line respondents expect another cryptomoney or a digital currency issued by a central bank to capture a dominant market share and replace BTC, while 16% predict that Bitcoin’s meteoric, exaggerated historical cycles will eventually die out. Nearly 10% of participants don’t believe that there will be a „case study“ for Bitcoin in the future.
The bullish case
At the upside of the spectrum, one-tenth said Bitcoin would be worth six figures or more (between $100,000 and $1 million) within a decade, and half expected the price to exceed $500,000.
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Nearly 30% of bullish respondents believe that Bitcoin adoption will be driven by declining confidence in fiat currencies, and 25.8% anticipate that „a great economic depression“ will lead to massive adoption. More than half of the participants believe that „Bitcoin adoption has a lot of room for growth“ despite the external political forces towards cryptomoney.
Who was surveyed?
The survey had a good mix of investors, with one quarter allocating more than half of their wealth to investments in the digital currency, one quarter having an exposure to Kryptomoney of between 10% and 50%, another quarter having between 1% and 10% invested in Kryptomoney, while the rest had 1% or less of their wealth currently in the currency.
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A recent survey by fund manager Grayscale Investments found that the COVID-19 pandemic had a positive impact on sentiment toward Bitcoin, with 39% of respondents describing BTC as „more attractive“ in the midst of the pandemic.
Last month, a survey of 700 high net worth individuals published by the deVere Group found that 73% of millionaires already own or are planning to invest in cryptoactives by 2023.